Contract Sales Plunge Over 60%: Real Estate "Dark Horse" ZonAn Group Slows Down

"It has been a long time since the figure of ZonAn Group appeared in the Hangzhou land auction market. In the past two years, the company was still aggressively acquiring land at high costs, and now the primary task is to accelerate the launch and sales of properties while ensuring a certain profit," a local senior real estate industry insider remarked recently.

The 12th batch of land auctions in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, concluded quietly, and the local real estate company ZonAn Group (00672.HK) was still absent. Reporters learned that from 2021 to 2022, when most private real estate companies were shrinking their operations, ZonAn Group spent about 16 billion yuan to acquire 19 plots of land. This counter-trend expansion strategy has also made the usually low-key ZonAn Group widely known.

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The counter-trend "surge" of ZonAn Group quickly felt the after-effects of aggressive expansion. Financial report data shows that in the first half of 2024, the real estate contract sales amount of ZonAn Group was about 2.875 billion yuan, a decrease of about 61.4% year-on-year; the profit was about 118 million yuan, a decrease of about 24.5% compared to the same period in 2023; the profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was only 62.509 million yuan, a decrease of 68.2% year-on-year.

In addition, ZonAn Group has also proposed a development strategy of both heavy and light assets, starting to layout the agency construction business from 2016, but the development situation is not satisfactory. So far in 2024, ZonAn Group has not only "harvested nothing" but also ranks outside the top 30 in the comprehensive strength of the agency construction industry.

In response to the dilemma of agency construction business, the development plan of existing land reserves, and future development strategy, reporters called the headquarters of ZonAn Group and the investor relations department, and sent an interview outline by email. The staff of ZonAn Group said that they had informed the relevant departments of the interview needs, but as of the time of publication, the reporter had not received further replies.

Financial report data "乌龙"

Due to printing errors, the total construction area of land reserves in ZonAn Group's 2024 interim performance announcement was magnified a hundred times, becoming 810 million square meters. ZonAn Group, recognizing the error, subsequently issued a clarification announcement, stating that the corrected total construction area of land reserves is about 8.1 million square meters.

In fact, this is not the first time ZonAn Group has been careless. In the 2023 interim financial report, the land reserve area disclosed by ZonAn Group was an unreasonable 964 million square meters, but the company did not issue a clarification announcement.

ZonAn Group's financial report data has been "乌龙" many times, bringing this Zhejiang-based real estate company back into the public eye. Public information shows that Shi Zhong'an, the founder and chairman of ZonAn Group, was once a civil servant in the Finance and Tax Bureau of Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou, served as the general manager of Xiaoshan Yinhe Real Estate Development Company, and presided over the development of well-known projects such as Yinhe Apartment, Yinhe Business Center, and Yinhe Community.

Time turned to 1997, Shi Zhong'an decided to start his own business and established the predecessor of ZonAn Group, ZonAn Real Estate Company. He quickly won a residential land in Xiaoshan District and successfully developed the first project, ZonAn Garden, and since then has expanded within Zhejiang Province with Hangzhou as the center.Under the leadership of Shi Zhong'an, Zhong'an Group has become a large enterprise group in Zhejiang Province that simultaneously possesses listed companies in real estate, commerce, and property management. Specifically, Zhong'an Group is responsible for real estate development; China New City (01321.HK) mainly operates commercial projects, including commercial, hotel, industrial park, and office building formats; Zhong'an Smart Life (02271.HK) focuses on residential property management services.

Despite being established for 26 years, Zhong'an Group made a significant impact in 2021. In that year, Zhong'an Group spent approximately 11.1 billion yuan to acquire 12 plots of land, adding about 1.93 million square meters of land area; in the first half of 2022, Zhong'an Group spent about 4.9 billion yuan to acquire 7 plots of land, adding about 524,000 square meters of land construction area, becoming a true real estate "dark horse."

Soon after, Zhong'an Group's "surge" in the land auction market came to an abrupt halt. Since the second half of 2022, Zhong'an Group has not added any new land reserves.

In response to this, Zhang Jiangang, the Chief Executive Officer of Zhong'an Group, stated at the 2024 annual performance report meeting that the group did not acquire land in Hangzhou or other cities in 2023 due to considerations of prudent management, and the current land reserves are sufficient for development in the next few years. "While maintaining the group's financial health, we will appropriately purchase some land that meets development requirements."

Zhong'an Group also revealed in its financial report that, as of the end of the first half of 2024, the existing land reserves are enough to support the company's development for the next five years.

Emphasizing the word "prudent" repeatedly,

Expanding against the trend during the downturn in the real estate industry also led to significant growth in Zhong'an Group's performance from 2022 to 2023.

Financial report data shows that in 2022, Zhong'an Group achieved a revenue of 9.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 187 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 155%. In 2023, the company's revenue was 14.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.6%; the profit was 287 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1240.5%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 479 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 156.8%.

So far this year, although Zhong'an Group's revenue has continued to grow rapidly, profits have declined significantly. Financial report data shows that in the first half of 2024, Zhong'an Group achieved a revenue of 9.283 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 127.6%; the gross profit was about 1.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 161.7%; but the profit was about 118 million yuan, a decrease of about 24.5% compared to the same period in 2023; the profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was only 62.509 million yuan, a decrease of 68.2% year-on-year.

Specifically for the real estate business, Zhong'an Group's real estate sales also showed a significant decline. Financial report data shows that in the first half of 2024, Zhong'an Group had more than 40 projects for sale, mainly distributed in several cities in the Yangtze River Delta region, with a contracted sales amount of about 2.875 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 61.4%.Affected by the previous counter-trend expansion, the cash flow situation of Zhong'an Group is also not optimistic. Financial report data shows that from 2021 to 2023, the net operating cash flow of Zhong'an Group was -269 million yuan, 546 million yuan, and 2.781 billion yuan, respectively. The net financing cash flow was 2.04 billion yuan, -1.88 billion yuan, and -4.969 billion yuan, respectively. The net investment cash flow was -1.327 billion yuan, -920 million yuan, and -260 million yuan, respectively.

To this end, the other two major listed company platforms controlled by Shi Zhong'an began to frequently "transfuse blood" for Zhong'an Group, with China New City being the most prominent. In June 2022, China New City signed a financial advance framework agreement with Zhong'an Group to provide regular advances. According to the agreement, from 2022 to 2024, the maximum amount of advances provided by China New City to Zhong'an Group was 1.2 billion yuan, 1.5 billion yuan, and 1.8 billion yuan, respectively.

Despite this, the short-term debt repayment pressure of Zhong'an Group remains high. Financial report data shows that as of the end of the first half of 2024, the total asset-liability ratio and net debt ratio of Zhong'an Group were 69.1% and 44.8%, respectively; the cash and cash equivalents held were 588 million yuan, and the restricted cash was 1.326 billion yuan. However, the total loan amount was about 7.787 billion yuan, of which the debt due within one year accounted for nearly 50%, reaching 3.588 billion yuan.

Against this background, Shi Zhong'an repeatedly emphasized the word "prudent" at the 2024 performance release conference. He said that Zhong'an Group needs to continue to promote sales and reduce debt in the real estate sector, adhere to the strategic plan of "deeply cultivating the Yangtze River Delta, with the core in Zhejiang", and become a healthy enterprise.

In Shi Zhong'an's view, although the real estate market recovery momentum was insufficient in the first half of 2024, as real estate policies continue to optimize, it is expected that homebuyer confidence and expectations will gradually be repaired, and sales in the second half of 2024 are expected to gradually warm up.

Transformation to construction "arriving late"

Zhong'an Lakeside Mansion, located at the intersection of Xuefeng West Road and Fuxing Road in Beiyuan Street, the main urban area of Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province, has an average price of large flat products exceeding 45,000 yuan per square meter, which gives the project a place in the local high-end market. This is a real estate construction project under Zhong'an Group.

It is understood that as early as 2016, Zhong'an Group established a professional construction platform, forming a development strategy of "focusing on both heavy and light, and promoting light with heavy". Up to now, Zhong'an Group has accumulated 36 construction projects, with a total contract construction area of about 5.6 million square meters. In addition to Yiwu City, Zhong'an Group's construction projects are also distributed in key cities such as Hangzhou and Ningbo in Zhejiang Province.

Not long ago, Guan Jian, the chairman of Zhong'an Group's construction company, publicly stated that the current real estate market is still bottoming out, and more and more companies are transforming to construction. From the experience of negotiating projects, operational safety is definitely one of the primary indicators that the client will examine. "Among private enterprises, Zhong'an Group has always adhered to a prudent development strategy, which provides us with ample time and space to explore new construction models."

According to Guan Jian, Zhong'an Group always maintains a prudent operation's inertial thinking when selecting construction projects. In terms of project selection, in addition to operational indicators, Zhong'an Group pays more attention to the medium and long-term value of the project. For projects with short-term profits but medium and long-term market risks or brand risks, Zhong'an Group still needs to give up; for projects with controllable risks, Zhong'an Group prefers areas with larger market capacity. If it is only an opportunity-type area with one or two projects, the team placement after the project will be a big problem, and it will not be able to form brand influence."Therefore, Zhong'an Group places more emphasis on whether the region and city where the project is located have the conditions for deep cultivation," Guan Jian said. Zhong'an Group's construction agency business will maintain a high degree of fit with the real estate layout, taking Zhejiang Province as the foothold and taking root in the Yangtze River Delta. For example, in Yiwu City, where Zhong'an Group has been meticulously cultivated for 6 years, the product strength and delivery strength have been recognized by the market.

Zhong'an Group also stated that now, construction agency projects are generally deeply bound with agency sales and agency operations. Zhong'an Group has accumulated years of experience in the fields of commerce and hotels, which is an added point when expanding the construction agency business.

Despite having a complete methodology, Zhong'an Group's construction agency business can be said to have "started early and arrived late." According to the statistical data of the China Index Research Institute, in the first half of 2024, the newly signed construction agency area of Zhong'an Group "zeroed out."

At the same time, in the "2024 First Half-Year Comprehensive Capability Ranking of Chinese Real Estate Enterprise Construction Agencies" just released by CRIC, Zhong'an Group was not seen in the top 30, and the construction agency "newcomers" Longhu Longzhizao, Xuhui Construction Management, and China Merchants Construction Management ranked at the forefront. Under the competitive pressure of the construction agency market, how Zhong'an Group's light asset transformation can achieve new breakthroughs is worth the market's expectation.