China Auto Circulation: Sept Used Car Sales Expected to Hit 1.65M, Up 5.3% MoM

The China Automobile Dealers Association (CADA) has released a weekly report on the used car market.Data shows that in the last week before the National Day holiday,from September 23rd to September 30th,the transaction scale of China's used car market continued to climb,demonstrating the significant characteristics of a peak season market.The average daily transaction volume in the last week before the National Day holiday reached 65,700 units,a 3.36% increase compared to the previous week,and a 7.7% increase compared to the same period in August,with a significant increase in market activity.It is expected that the used car transaction volume in September will reach 1.65 million units,a 5.3% increase compared to August,and a 3.8% increase compared to the same period last year.As the traditional peak season of September and October arrives,the replacement rate of used cars will increase,the supply of car sources will be relatively sufficient,and both market demand and customer flow will improve.

Weekly transaction trend of used cars

Note: Transaction volume is calculated based on 5 working days

Looking back at the market performance in the first few weeks of September,it can be seen that the used car market has been steadily recovering:

In the first week,driven by the positive promotion of the car replacement policy,the average daily transaction volume reached 62,100 units,a 1.79% increase compared to the previous week,and a 2.4% increase compared to the same period in August.

In the second week,the average daily transaction volume slightly increased to 62,700 units,a 5.7% increase compared to the same period in August.

In the third week,the average daily transaction volume further climbed to 63,500 units,a 1.32% increase compared to the previous week,and a 7% increase compared to the same period in August,showing the gradual start of purchase demand before the holiday.

The high transaction volume in the market this week is mainly due to the following factors:

First,the demand for long-distance cross-province travel and self-driving travel has surged,especially "self-driving tours" have become an important way for people to travel,and the extra-long holiday has further promoted the release of pre-holiday car purchase demand.

Second,the "October 1st" Golden Week is a period when many consumers plan to choose and replace cars,and the market and car merchants have also launched more promotional activities in time before the long holiday,meeting the car purchase needs of consumers.Therefore,the current situation of high inventory of used cars has begun to ease this week,providing favorable conditions for the further development of the market.The third and most critical factor is the progressive implementation of car trade-in policies across various regions,which,when combined with the consumer demand before the long holidays,has jointly created the highest weekly transaction volume in the past three months.

It is anticipated that the used car transaction volume will reach 1.65 million units in September,representing a month-on-month increase of 5.3% and a year-on-year growth of 3.8%.As we enter the traditional peak season of September and October,the rate of used car replacement is expected to increase,with a relatively ample supply of car sources and an improvement in market demand and customer traffic.

However,despite the market gradually warming up,the survival pressure on the entire industry remains significant.Although the wave of new car price reductions has somewhat eased,it has not completely stopped,and the issue of high inventory levels among car dealers has not been fundamentally alleviated.Therefore,it is recommended that used car dealers maintain a cautious attitude in their business strategies for the fourth quarter to cope with potential market fluctuations and challenges.